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Downside Radar
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Our data shows that 3 out of 4 biotech stocks that fell 25% or more below their close on the day of a recent offering were still lower 60 trading days later, with a median return of −29%. These are the stocks in that setup today, updated every day after the US close from SEC filings.
On the radar today: 0
No biotech stock is in this setup today.
How to read this: pick any biotech stock on a random day and it was lower 60 trading days later 53% of the time, with a median return of −2%, because biotech stocks drift down on average. The radar's edge is 76% against that 53%, and a median of −29% against −2%.
Left the radar in the last 90 days
| Stock | On the radar | Price when it entered | Last price on the radar |
|---|---|---|---|
| AMLX | Oct 9, 2026 to Oct 9, 2026 | $28.14 | $28.14 |
| JUNS | Oct 9, 2026 to Oct 9, 2026 | $2.85 | $2.85 |
| GRML | Oct 9, 2026 to Oct 9, 2026 | $5.17 | $5.17 |
| LEXX | Oct 9, 2026 to Oct 9, 2026 | $3.32 | $3.32 |
| DCOY | Oct 9, 2026 to Oct 9, 2026 | $1.47 | $1.47 |
| ISPC | Oct 5, 2026 to Oct 5, 2026 | $1.05 | $1.05 |
| AMLX | Oct 5, 2026 to Oct 5, 2026 | $27.78 | $27.78 |
| GRML | Oct 5, 2026 to Oct 5, 2026 | $7.34 | $7.34 |
| ADIL | Oct 5, 2026 to Oct 5, 2026 | $4.35 | $4.35 |
| LEXX | Oct 5, 2026 to Oct 5, 2026 | $2.77 | $2.77 |
| DCOY | Oct 5, 2026 to Oct 5, 2026 | $1.67 | $1.67 |
How the Downside Radar works
The rule. A company filed an underwritten offering, a registered direct offering or a private placement (PIPE) with the SEC in the last 60 days, and its stock closes 25% or more below its close on the day of that filing (the offering-day close). The offering-day close is used rather than the offering price because every filing has a date, while not every filing states a price. Shares under $1 and stocks trading less than $200,000 a day are left out.
The evidence. We tested the rule on 756 biotech stocks with signals from October 2024 to July 2026: 177 cases in 105 stocks, compared with 2,298 random biotech stock-days.
| Signals | Cases | Lower 60 trading days later | Median 60-day return | Random biotech day: lower / median |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All | 177 | 76% | −29% | 53% / −2% |
| October 2024 to March 2025 (weak market) | 64 | 80% | −27% | 73% / −16% |
| April 2025 to July 2026 | 113 | 74% | −30% | 46% / +2% |
How the test counts: a stock enters at the next day's open and is measured at the close 60 trading days after the signal. It counts once per episode, and again only after 20 trading days off the signal. Prices are adjusted for splits. The random comparison is a 1% sample of all biotech stock-days that pass the same price and volume filters. The last signal day included is July 8, 2026, so every case has its full 60 days. Wider or narrower rules (offerings 30 to 120 days back, 15% to 35% below the offering-day close) gave 64% to 76% lower.
Why it happens. An offering adds shares and often warrants. Buyers who got the stock at a discount sell into any strength, warrants cap the price near their exercise level, and a company that needed cash once often needs it again. When the price is already well below the deal, the market is saying the overhang is not absorbed yet.
What did not make the cut. We also tested buying signals: a 20-day average 30% or more below the 200-day average, RSI and MACD turns, volume capitulation and breakouts off a 52-week low, with and without recent news. None did better than a random day, so they are not here.
Which stocks are covered. BioRadar's biotech universe, about 760 US-listed stocks: SEC industry codes for pharmaceutical preparations, biological products and related research, plus Nasdaq's biotech classification. A company changing its business can still appear while its SEC industry code says biotech.
Companies that were delisted or went bankrupt during the period are not in the test. Past patterns do not guarantee future results. Informational purposes only, not investment advice.
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